A fair, lasting and balanced agreement. This is how Laurent Fabius, president of COP21, described the agreement signed in Paris in December 2015 to regulate the reduction of climate change at global level. Today, at least in Europe, it is time to draw the first conclusions and analyse the future opportunities that decarbonisation will generate in Europe.
Wind as a driving force
The European Commission has established the goals in terms of decarbonisation, the reduction of CO2 emissions and the growth pattern of renewable energies. The objectives of the previous Europe 2020 strategy were updated at the COP21 conference in Paris in late 2015. Over a year later, no further written agreements have been made and the main problem today is the absence of a common policy among Member States that establishes the goals that individual countries must meet in order to achieve the pre-established levels.
The key objectives in terms of the climate and energy to meet by 2030 are as follows:
- – Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by at least 40% (compared with 1990). A plan is required for the new international agreement on the climate that makes it possible to meet the subsequent and longer-term goal of reducing emissions by 80-95% by 2050;
- – At least 27% of average European energy requirements fulfilled using renewable sources by 2030;
- – 27% increase in the efficiency of the current systems based on renewable energies by 2030. Possibility of raising the target to up to 30% from 2020
Today the primary source of energy is still by far and away coal (graphic), which accounts for almost twice as much energy as that produced from renewable sources. According to estimates, by 2040 renewable energies should have overtaken coal (this should occur in 2030). The biggest renewable sources should be hydroelectric energy, which should grow consistently over time, wind and solar energy, the latter two growing exponentially between now and 2040.
LCOE – Why it is important to analyse the Levelised Cost Of Electricity
As well as the policy measures of the EU, the reasons for the exponential increase in renewable energy investments in recent years can be attributed to the lowering of the production cost of energy from renewable sources compared with the production cost connected with the use of coal and fossil fuels. This has made renewable energy more competitive from a production perspective and, as a result, also in terms of consumption.
At global level wind energy is the most competitive among the alternatives to coal and is now not too far behind it.
“European Wind Energy Association” (EWEA) Report – Scenario for 2030
In 2014 the European Union set the binding objective of meeting 27% of energy requirements using renewable energies. This 27% would include 45%-50% of electricity generated from renewable sources. In particular, wind energy should account for at least 21% of the electricity consumed in 2030. Depending on the evolution of the policies of individual Member States and the degree to which they meet the goals established to reduce atmospheric CO2 emissions, the EWEA envisaged three different scenarios.
Worst case scenario: 251 GW of wind energy installations (76,000 wind turbines), enough to meet 19% of the electricity demand. The sector would provide 307,000 jobs for a total investment of €367 billion.
Central scenario: the central scenario, and the most likely, involves 320 GW of wind energy installations, of which 254 GW onshore and 66 GW offshore. This would be more than twice as much as the installed capacity in 2014 (129 GW) and an increase of around 65% on the expected capacity installed in 2020. 24.5% of the EU’s electricity demand would be met and the wind energy market would be worth a total of €474 billion. There would be 96,000 turbines at sea and on land.
Best case scenario: 392 GW of wind energy installations satisfying 31% of the EU’s electricity demand. €591 billion of investment would be required for a total of 114,000 wind turbines installed. The sector would generate 366,000 jobs.
Conclusion: which way is the wind blowing in Europe?
How is the European renewable energies race proceeding? At the end of 2015 the average European figure was 16.7% of final consumption, well behind schedule compared with goal of 20% by 2020 and 27% by 2030.
The standard bearer in Europe is Sweden, where 53.9% of all energy consumed is “green”, and they are followed at a distance by Finland (39.3%), Latvia (37.6%) and Austria (33%). Italy’s results have also been excellent with 17.5% of the country’s energy requirements at the end of 2015 covered by renewable energies, putting it ahead of its 2020 target of 17%. At the other end of the spectrum, the performances of the Netherlands (5.8% with a goal of 14% by 2020), France (15.2%, 2020 target of 23%) and the UK (8.2%, 2020 target of 15%) have been less encouraging.
In summary, although not without a few difficulties on the way, “the wind has changed” in the energy sector and every new day is of increasing importance as regards Europe’s green policy. A process that must become more engrained between now and 2030 if we are to guarantee a better future for our planet.